{"id":20753,"date":"2024-02-19T10:20:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T09:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/?page_id=20753"},"modified":"2024-02-26T05:51:05","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T04:51:05","slug":"prediction-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Forecasting 101"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"20753\" class=\"elementor elementor-20753\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-24d93bb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"24d93bb\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c1e80fe\" data-id=\"c1e80fe\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-08f49a1 elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"08f49a1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/2020\/04\/03\/theories-and-algorithms-2\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Theories<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-117cdc9\" data-id=\"117cdc9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dcd4e6a elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"dcd4e6a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Home page<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fa41958\" data-id=\"fa41958\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c32199b elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"c32199b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/plat.ai\/blog\/difference-between-prediction-and-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Wiki<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8817683 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8817683\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f0c1425\" data-id=\"f0c1425\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4f22c18 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"4f22c18\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8291\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8291\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">I. Statistical\/stochastic forecasting<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8291\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8291\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/help-with-the-decision\/linear-modeling\/\">Linear model<\/a> :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARMAX<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SARIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MSARIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Q-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ST-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABS-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GARCH-M<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">T-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EWMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARFIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MLR<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Non-linear model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">STAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">LSTAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ESTAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SETAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Markov switching\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Multivariate model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VARMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARX<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SSARIMA<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Exponential Smoothing:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/holt-winters\/\">ES<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/holt-winters\/\">Holt-Winters<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/holt-winters\/\">HWT<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Other regressives:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DSHW<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TBATS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FASSTER<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8292\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8292\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">II. Based on states<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8292\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8292\"><p>Transformation of the time series:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kalman filter<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Particle filter<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Monte Carlo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bootstrapping<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Importance of sampling<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Univariate model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARIMAx<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Transfer functions<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Exponential smoothing<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Structural unobserved components<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hodrick-Prescott filter<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spline smoothing<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Multivariate model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VARIMAx<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Structural VAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VECM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dynamic factor models<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Non-linear model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stochastic volatility<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dynamic Conditional Score<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Generalized Autoregressive Score<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Multiplicative unobserved components<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Others :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Periodic cubic splines<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Periodic unobserved components models<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> State dependent models<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Gegenbauer long memory processes<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1364032117303155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Case-based reasoning<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TFM<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8293\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8293\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">III. Bayesian forecasting<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8293\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8293\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E.M.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MCMC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Factor copula construction<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stochastic copula AR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARMA-like and GARCH-like<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8294\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8294\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">IV. Model with Agents<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8294\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8294\"><p>Genetic model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MGGP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIGP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SemanticGP<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8295\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8295\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">V. Deep learning model<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8295\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8295\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FFNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GRNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RBF<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ELM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SOM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TLNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SANN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SAA-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">M-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RS-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PSO-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ANN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hybrid ANN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ART-NN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ELM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SOMEFuNN<\/a><\/li><li>LSTM<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8296\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8296\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VI. Data preprocessing<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8296\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8296\"><p>Transformation and decomposition:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Log and Box-Cox<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Detrending<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Deseasonalization<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Autocorrelation<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cox-Stuart test<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Wavelet transform<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fourier transform<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">STFT<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">D.W.T.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CWT<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/dickey-fuller\/\">Dickey-Fuller Test<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Choice of variables and models:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Granger causality<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OLS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RIDGE, LASSO, ElasticNet<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CSR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AIC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BIC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">HQ<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Saturation estimation<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Autometrics<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Validation:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cross-validation for time series<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bootstrap<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bagging<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Moving block bootstrap<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RSB<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bagged ETX<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BMC<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8297\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8297\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VII. Precision measurement<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8297\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8297\"><p>Scale-dependent measurement:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/forecasting-errors\/\">MAE, MDAE, MSE, RMSE<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Percentage :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/forecasting-errors\/\">MAPE, sMAPE, MASE, sMdAPE<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>In relative terms:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/forecasting-errors\/\">MRAE, MdRAE, RelMAE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/forecasting-errors\/\">U-statistic<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Bayesian model:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">K-fold out-of-sample log predictive score<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Out-of-sample Value-at-Risk<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Expected Shortfall<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CRPS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">log-score<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.econstor.eu\/bitstream\/10419\/62795\/1\/377026654.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Persistence measurement<\/a><\/p><p>Performance index:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Computational Complexity and Model Fitting<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forecasting skill SS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Expertise Score: Brier, Proper<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/diebold-mariano\/\">DM tests and HLN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Data snooping<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1364032117303155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DeltaCOP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/pesaran-timmermann\/\">Pesaran-Timmermann<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8298\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8298\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VIII. Tutorials<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8298\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8298\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/pipeline-forecasting\/\">Classic pipeline for time series forecasting<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/anomaly-detection\/\">Pipeline for anomaly detection and management<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/pytimetk\/\">PyTimePK library<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/cross-validation\/\">Cross-validation for time series<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/autogluon-forecasting\/\">Forecasting with Amazon AutoGluon<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e669393 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e669393\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cb41351\" data-id=\"cb41351\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2413767 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2413767\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/prediction-forecast\/#Prediction-et-PrevisionForecasting\" >Prediction and Forecast\/Forecasting<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prediction-et-PrevisionForecasting\"><\/span>Prediction and Forecast\/Forecasting<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3a6c540 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3a6c540\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f9a417b\" data-id=\"f9a417b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6b4f728 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6b4f728\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Forecasting and prediction are methods used to estimate future outcomes, but they differ in several key aspects. Forecasts rely heavily on historical data and statistical methods to make educated guesses about future trends. Conversely, prediction involves making educated guesses or projections without depending on these factors.<\/p><p>However, both approaches share the most important assumption of predictive modeling: that past trends and patterns will continue into the future.<\/p><p>Although future results can be predicted and forecast based on past data, this is not always true. As such, businesses must continually evaluate and update their forecasting and forecasting processes to adapt to changing market dynamics and technological advancements.<\/p><p>That said, here are some of the main differences between prediction and forecast:<\/p><p>Definition<\/p><ul><li>Forecasting is the process of estimating future events or trends based on historical data and statistical methods. This involves analyzing patterns and trends in past data to make educated guesses about future outcomes.<\/li><li>Prediction is making an educated guess or projection about a specific outcome without relying on historical data or statistical methods.<\/li><\/ul><p>Temporal scale<\/p><ul><li>Temporal forecasting typically focuses on predicting outcomes over a longer period of time, often involving trends and patterns that occur over months, years, or even decades.<\/li><li>Predictions can be more short-term and immediate, often used to estimate outcomes in the near future, up to a year.<\/li><\/ul><p>Hypotheses<\/p><ul><li>Forecasting relies heavily on historical data and statistical methods, assuming that past trends and patterns will continue into the future.<\/li><li>Predictions may involve assumptions based on expert opinions, hunches or subjective judgments, without necessarily relying on historical data.<\/li><\/ul><p>Precision<\/p><ul><li>Forecasting aims to provide a more accurate estimate of future outcomes.<\/li><li>Predictions may be less accurate due to their reliance on subjective judgments and assumptions.<\/li><\/ul><p>Objective<\/p><ul><li>The forecast is used for <a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/planning-problem\/\">planning<\/a> strategy, budgeting, resource allocation and risk management. It helps businesses make informed decisions based on historical data and statistical projections.<\/li><li>Predictions can be used in meteorology, sports predictions or market predictions, where subjective opinions or assumptions play a role.<\/li><\/ul><p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-20755 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features.png\" alt=\"forecasting prediction\" width=\"576\" height=\"360\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features.png 576w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Theories Home page Wiki I. Statistical \/ stochastic forecasting Linear model: ARIMA ARMA ARMAX SARIMA MSARIMA Q-GARCH ST-GARCH ABS-GARCH GARCH-M E-GARCH T-GARCH EWMA ARFIMA \u2026 <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-20753","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20753"}],"version-history":[{"count":61,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21161,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753\/revisions\/21161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}