{"id":20753,"date":"2024-02-19T10:20:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T09:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/?page_id=20753"},"modified":"2024-02-26T05:51:05","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T04:51:05","slug":"prediction-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicci\u00f3n Predicci\u00f3n 101"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"20753\" class=\"elementor elementor-20753\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-24d93bb elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"24d93bb\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-c1e80fe\" data-id=\"c1e80fe\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-08f49a1 elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"08f49a1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/2020\/04\/03\/teorias-y-algoritmos-2\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Teor\u00edas<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-117cdc9\" data-id=\"117cdc9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dcd4e6a elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"dcd4e6a\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Pagina de inicio<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-fa41958\" data-id=\"fa41958\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c32199b elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"c32199b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/plat.ai\/blog\/difference-between-prediction-and-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Wiki<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-8817683 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"8817683\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f0c1425\" data-id=\"f0c1425\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4f22c18 elementor-widget elementor-widget-toggle\" data-id=\"4f22c18\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"toggle.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8291\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8291\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">I. Previsi\u00f3n estad\u00edstica\/estoc\u00e1stica<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8291\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"1\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8291\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/ayuda-con-la-decision\/modelado-lineal\/\">Modelo lineal<\/a> :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARMAX<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sarima<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MSARIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Q-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ST-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ABS-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GARCH-M<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">T-GARCH<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EWMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARFIMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MLR<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo no lineal:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ALQUITR\u00c1N<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ESTRELLA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">LSTAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ESTAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SETAR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Cambio de Markov\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo multivariado:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">var<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VARMA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARX<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SSARIMA<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Suavizado exponencial:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/inviernos-altos\/\">ES<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/inviernos-altos\/\">Holt-Winters<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/inviernos-altos\/\">HT<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Otros regresivos:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DSHW<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TBATS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">M\u00c1S R\u00c1PIDO<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8292\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8292\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">II. Basado en estados<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8292\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"2\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8292\"><p>Transformaci\u00f3n de la serie temporal:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">filtro de kalman<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Filtro de part\u00edculas<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Monte Carlo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arranque<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Importancia del muestreo<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo univariado:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARIMAx<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Funciones de transferencia<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Suavizado exponencial<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Componentes estructurales no observados<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Filtro Hodrick-Prescott<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Suavizado de spline<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo multivariado:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VARIMAx<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VAR estructural<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VECM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Modelos de factores din\u00e1micos<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo no lineal:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ALQUITR\u00c1N<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARCO<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GARCIA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Volatilidad estoc\u00e1stica<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Puntuaci\u00f3n condicional din\u00e1mica<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Puntuaci\u00f3n autorregresiva generalizada<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Componentes multiplicativos no observados<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Otros :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Splines c\u00fabicos peri\u00f3dicos<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Modelos peri\u00f3dicos de componentes no observados.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Modelos dependientes del estado<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> Procesos de memoria larga de Gegenbauer<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1364032117303155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Razonamiento basado en casos<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TFM<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8293\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8293\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">III. pron\u00f3stico bayesiano<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8293\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"3\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8293\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">E. M.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MCMC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MMM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">A B C<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Construcci\u00f3n de c\u00f3pula factorial.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">C\u00f3pula estoc\u00e1stica AR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tipo ARMA y tipo GARCH<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8294\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8294\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">IV. Modelo con agentes<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8294\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"4\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8294\"><p>Modelo gen\u00e9tico:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MGGP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIGP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sem\u00e1nticaGP<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8295\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8295\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">V. Modelo de aprendizaje profundo<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8295\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"5\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8295\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FFNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GRNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FBR<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OLMO<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SOM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">TLNN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SANN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SAA-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">M-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RS-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PSO-SVM<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ANA<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RNA h\u00edbrida<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ARTE-NN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OLMO<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1742-6596\/1613\/1\/012019\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ALGO DE DIVERSI\u00d3N<\/a><\/li><li>LSTM<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8296\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8296\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VI. Preprocesamiento de datos<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8296\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"6\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8296\"><p>Transformaci\u00f3n y descomposici\u00f3n:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Registro y caja-Cox<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">De tendencia<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Desestacionalizaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Autocorrelaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Prueba de Cox-Stuart<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">transformada wavelet<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Transformada de Fourier<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">STFT<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">D.W.T.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CWT<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/dickey-mas-completo\/\">Prueba de Dickey-Fuller<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Elecci\u00f3n de variables y modelos:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Causalidad de Granger<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OLS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CRESTA, LAZO, ElasticNet<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RSE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AIC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BIC<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sede<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Estimaci\u00f3n de saturaci\u00f3n<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">autometria<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Validaci\u00f3n:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Validaci\u00f3n cruzada para series temporales.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Oreja<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">harpillera<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arranque de bloque m\u00f3vil<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RSB<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ETX en bolsas<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BMC<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8297\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8297\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VII. Medici\u00f3n de precisi\u00f3n<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8297\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"7\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8297\"><p>Medici\u00f3n dependiente de la escala:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/\">MAE, MDAE, MSE, RMSE<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Porcentaje :<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/\">MAPE, sMAPE, MASE, sMdAPE<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>En t\u00e9rminos relativos:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/\">MRAE, MdRAE, RelMAE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/\">estad\u00edstica U<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p>Modelo bayesiano:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Puntuaci\u00f3n predictiva logar\u00edtmica fuera de muestra multiplicada por K<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Valor en riesgo fuera de muestra<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">D\u00e9ficit esperado<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CRPS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">puntuaci\u00f3n de registro<\/a><\/li><\/ul><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.econstor.eu\/bitstream\/10419\/62795\/1\/377026654.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Medici\u00f3n de persistencia<\/a><\/p><p>\u00cdndice de rendimiento:<\/p><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Complejidad computacional y ajuste de modelos<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/1996-1073\/8\/11\/13162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Habilidad de pron\u00f3stico SS<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Puntuaci\u00f3n de experiencia: Brier, adecuada<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/mariano-diebold\/\">Pruebas de DM y HLN<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0169207021001758\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Espionaje de datos<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S1364032117303155\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DeltaCOP<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/pesaran-timmermann\/\">Pesaran-Timmermann<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-toggle-item\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-title-8298\" class=\"elementor-tab-title\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"button\" aria-controls=\"elementor-tab-content-8298\" aria-expanded=\"false\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon elementor-toggle-icon-left\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-closed\"><i class=\"fas fa-caret-right\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened\"><i class=\"elementor-toggle-icon-opened fas fa-caret-up\"><\/i><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-toggle-title\" tabindex=\"0\">VIII. Tutoriales<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"elementor-tab-content-8298\" class=\"elementor-tab-content elementor-clearfix\" data-tab=\"8\" role=\"region\" aria-labelledby=\"elementor-tab-title-8298\"><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/prevision-de-tuberias\/\">Canalizaci\u00f3n cl\u00e1sica para pron\u00f3stico de series temporales<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/deteccion-de-anomalias\/\">Canalizaci\u00f3n para la detecci\u00f3n y gesti\u00f3n de anomal\u00edas.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/pytimetk\/\">Biblioteca PyTimePK<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/validacion-cruzada\/\">Validaci\u00f3n cruzada para series temporales.<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/pronostico-de-autogluones\/\">Previsi\u00f3n con Amazon AutoGluon<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-e669393 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"e669393\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-cb41351\" data-id=\"cb41351\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2413767 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"2413767\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_85 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Contenido<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Tabla de contenido alternativo\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Palanca<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/#Prediction-et-PrevisionForecasting\" >Predicci\u00f3n y pron\u00f3stico\/pron\u00f3stico<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Prediction-et-PrevisionForecasting\"><\/span>Predicci\u00f3n y pron\u00f3stico\/pron\u00f3stico<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-3a6c540 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"3a6c540\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f9a417b\" data-id=\"f9a417b\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-6b4f728 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"6b4f728\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>El pron\u00f3stico y la predicci\u00f3n son m\u00e9todos utilizados para estimar resultados futuros, pero difieren en varios aspectos clave. Los pron\u00f3sticos se basan en gran medida en datos hist\u00f3ricos y m\u00e9todos estad\u00edsticos para hacer conjeturas fundamentadas sobre las tendencias futuras. Por el contrario, la predicci\u00f3n implica hacer conjeturas o proyecciones fundamentadas sin depender de estos factores.<\/p><p>Sin embargo, ambos enfoques comparten el supuesto m\u00e1s importante de los modelos predictivos: que las tendencias y patrones pasados continuar\u00e1n en el futuro.<\/p><p>Aunque los resultados futuros se pueden predecir y pronosticar bas\u00e1ndose en datos pasados, esto no siempre es cierto. Como tal, las empresas deben evaluar y actualizar continuamente sus procesos de previsi\u00f3n y pron\u00f3stico para adaptarse a la din\u00e1mica cambiante del mercado y los avances tecnol\u00f3gicos.<\/p><p>Dicho esto, estas son algunas de las principales diferencias entre predicci\u00f3n y pron\u00f3stico:<\/p><p>Definici\u00f3n<\/p><ul><li>La previsi\u00f3n es el proceso de estimar eventos o tendencias futuros bas\u00e1ndose en datos hist\u00f3ricos y m\u00e9todos estad\u00edsticos. Esto implica analizar patrones y tendencias en datos pasados para hacer conjeturas fundamentadas sobre resultados futuros.<\/li><li>La predicci\u00f3n consiste en hacer una conjetura o proyecci\u00f3n fundamentada sobre un resultado espec\u00edfico sin depender de datos hist\u00f3ricos o m\u00e9todos estad\u00edsticos.<\/li><\/ul><p>escala temporal<\/p><ul><li>El pron\u00f3stico temporal generalmente se enfoca en predecir resultados durante un per\u00edodo de tiempo m\u00e1s largo, y a menudo involucra tendencias y patrones que ocurren durante meses, a\u00f1os o incluso d\u00e9cadas.<\/li><li>Las predicciones pueden ser m\u00e1s a corto plazo e inmediatas, y a menudo se utilizan para estimar resultados en el futuro cercano, hasta un a\u00f1o.<\/li><\/ul><p>Hip\u00f3tesis<\/p><ul><li>Los pron\u00f3sticos se basan en gran medida en datos hist\u00f3ricos y m\u00e9todos estad\u00edsticos, suponiendo que las tendencias y patrones pasados continuar\u00e1n en el futuro.<\/li><li>Las predicciones pueden implicar suposiciones basadas en opiniones de expertos, corazonadas o juicios subjetivos, sin depender necesariamente de datos hist\u00f3ricos.<\/li><\/ul><p>Precisi\u00f3n<\/p><ul><li>La previsi\u00f3n tiene como objetivo proporcionar una estimaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s precisa de los resultados futuros.<\/li><li>Las predicciones pueden ser menos precisas debido a que se basan en juicios y suposiciones subjetivos.<\/li><\/ul><p>Objetivo<\/p><ul><li>El pron\u00f3stico se utiliza para <a href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/problema-de-planificacion\/\">planificaci\u00f3n<\/a> estrategia, presupuestaci\u00f3n, asignaci\u00f3n de recursos y gesti\u00f3n de riesgos. Ayuda a las empresas a tomar decisiones informadas basadas en datos hist\u00f3ricos y proyecciones estad\u00edsticas.<\/li><li>Las predicciones se pueden utilizar en meteorolog\u00eda, predicciones deportivas o predicciones de mercado, donde las opiniones o suposiciones subjetivas desempe\u00f1an un papel.<\/li><\/ul><p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-20755 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features.png\" alt=\"predicci\u00f3n de pron\u00f3stico\" width=\"576\" height=\"360\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features.png 576w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/forecast-with-machine-learning-features-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 576px) 100vw, 576px\" \/><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Teor\u00edas P\u00e1gina de inicio Wiki I. Pron\u00f3stico estad\u00edstico \/ estoc\u00e1stico Modelo lineal: ARIMA ARMA ARMAX SARIMA MSARIMA Q-GARCH ST-GARCH ABS-GARCH GARCH-M E-GARCH T-GARCH EWMA ARFIMA \u2026 <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-20753","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20753"}],"version-history":[{"count":61,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21161,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753\/revisions\/21161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20753"}],"curies":[{"name":"gracias","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}