{"id":20971,"date":"2024-02-24T19:20:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-24T18:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/?page_id=20971"},"modified":"2024-02-24T19:43:29","modified_gmt":"2024-02-24T18:43:29","slug":"erreurs-de-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/","title":{"rendered":"Errores de pron\u00f3stico"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-page\" data-elementor-id=\"20971\" class=\"elementor elementor-20971\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-60e73e0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"60e73e0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3345ded\" data-id=\"3345ded\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-4a20e22 elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"4a20e22\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Previsi\u00f3n<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ed3cf05\" data-id=\"ed3cf05\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-09366c2 elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"09366c2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Pagina de inicio<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-33 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-764067a\" data-id=\"764067a\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e524d13 elementor-align-justify elementor-widget elementor-widget-button\" data-id=\"e524d13\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-button-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"elementor-button elementor-button-link elementor-size-sm\" href=\"https:\/\/plat.ai\/blog\/difference-between-prediction-and-forecast\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"elementor-button-text\">Wiki<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-333fa6b elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"333fa6b\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-0ca2756\" data-id=\"0ca2756\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-56d7d0b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"56d7d0b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Contenido<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Tabla de contenido alternativo\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Palanca<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseprofile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/#Erreurs-de-Forecasting\" >Errores de previsi\u00f3n<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/#Mesures-dependants-de-lechelle\" >Mediciones dependientes de la escala<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/#Mesures-en-pourcentage\" >Medidas porcentuales<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/#Theil-U-Statistique\" >Estad\u00edsticas de Theil U<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/pronostico-de-prediccion\/errores-de-pronostico\/#Mesures-relatives\" >Medidas relativas<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Erreurs-de-Forecasting\"><\/span>Errores de previsi\u00f3n<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-367f2ff elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"367f2ff\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-b3aee43\" data-id=\"b3aee43\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fb80a35 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"fb80a35\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Estas son las principales m\u00e9tricas para medir los errores de pron\u00f3stico:<\/p><p>Medici\u00f3n dependiente de la escala:<\/p><ul><li>MAE, MDAE, MSE, RMSE<\/li><\/ul><p>Porcentaje :<\/p><ul><li>MAPE, sMAPE, MASE, sMdAPE<\/li><\/ul><p>En t\u00e9rminos relativos:<\/p><ul><li>MRAE, MdRAE, RelMAE<\/li><li>estad\u00edstica U<\/li><\/ul><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-11096 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/cropped-Capture.png\" alt=\"errores de pron\u00f3stico\" width=\"97\" height=\"97\" title=\"\"><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-57b96a9 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"57b96a9\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-3b55a11\" data-id=\"3b55a11\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-27605b0 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"27605b0\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mesures-dependants-de-lechelle\"><\/span>Mediciones dependientes de la escala<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c90a367 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c90a367\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-e7299ff\" data-id=\"e7299ff\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0f03013 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0f03013\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Usamos la siguiente terminolog\u00eda: si y1,\u2026, yn representa una serie de tiempo, entonces \u0177i representa el i\u00e9simo valor predicho, donde i \u2264 n. Para i \u2264 n, el i-\u00e9simo error ei (tambi\u00e9n conocido como residual) es entonces<\/p><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20973\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur1.png\" alt=\"errores de pron\u00f3stico\" width=\"76\" height=\"21\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur1.png 76w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur1-18x5.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 76px) 100vw, 76px\" \/><\/p><p>Nuestro objetivo es encontrar un pron\u00f3stico que minimice los errores. Generalmente se utilizan varias mediciones para determinar la precisi\u00f3n de un pron\u00f3stico. Estos incluyen el error cuadr\u00e1tico medio (MAE), el error cuadr\u00e1tico medio (MSE) y el error cuadr\u00e1tico medio (RMSE).<\/p><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-20974 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur2.png\" alt=\"MAE MSE RMSE\" width=\"423\" height=\"53\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur2.png 423w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur2-300x38.png 300w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur2-18x2.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 423px) 100vw, 423px\" \/><\/p><p>MdAE calcula la diferencia absoluta mediana entre dos vectores digitales.<\/p><p>real &lt;-c(1,1, 1,9, 3,0, 4,4, 5,0, 5,6)<br \/>previsto &lt;- c(0,9, 1,8, 2,5, 4,5, 5,0, 6,2)<br \/>mdae (real, planificado)<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fe6c8c0 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fe6c8c0\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-15c777c\" data-id=\"15c777c\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-9187844 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"9187844\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mesures-en-pourcentage\"><\/span>Medidas porcentuales<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-28ad0ad elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"28ad0ad\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6bcaa51\" data-id=\"6bcaa51\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-dc66397 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"dc66397\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Algunas otras m\u00e9tricas son el error porcentual absoluto medio (MAPE), el error de escala absoluto medio sim\u00e9trico (MASE) y el error porcentual absoluto medio sim\u00e9trico (SMAPE).<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-20976 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur3.png\" alt=\"MAPA SMAPE MASE\" width=\"592\" height=\"64\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur3.png 592w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur3-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur3-18x2.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 592px) 100vw, 592px\" \/><\/p><p>Error de escala absoluto mediano (MdASE). Tomar la mediana en lugar de la media de los errores absolutos de prueba y entrenamiento hace que esta m\u00e9trica sea m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida para los valores at\u00edpicos, ya que la mediana tiende a ser una medida de tendencia central m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida en presencia de valores at\u00edpicos.<\/p><p>Al igual que MASE y otras medidas de desempe\u00f1o escaladas, esta medida sin escala se puede utilizar para comparar m\u00e9todos de pron\u00f3stico dentro de una sola serie o entre series.<\/p><p>Al igual que MASE, esta m\u00e9trica es muy adecuada para series con demanda intermitente porque no dar\u00e1 valores infinitos o indefinidos a menos que los datos de entrenamiento sean una serie de tiempo plana. En este caso, la funci\u00f3n devuelve un valor grande en lugar de inf.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-9577065 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"9577065\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-8f38de2\" data-id=\"8f38de2\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-23e239e elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"23e239e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Theil-U-Statistique\"><\/span>Estad\u00edsticas de Theil U<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-50dd412 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"50dd412\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-87e32a6\" data-id=\"87e32a6\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2074dad elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2074dad\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Finalmente, est\u00e1 el estad\u00edstico U de Theil, que se calcula mediante la f\u00f3rmula<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20977\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur4.png\" alt=\"la estad\u00edstica U\" width=\"186\" height=\"57\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur4.png 186w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur4-18x6.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 186px) 100vw, 186px\" \/><\/p><p>Si U &lt; 1, la t\u00e9cnica de pron\u00f3stico es mejor que adivinar. Si U = 1, entonces la t\u00e9cnica de pron\u00f3stico equivale a una estimaci\u00f3n. Si U &gt; 1, entonces la t\u00e9cnica de pron\u00f3stico es peor que adivinar.<\/p><p>De hecho, U tambi\u00e9n se llama estad\u00edstico U2 de Theil. Tambi\u00e9n hay una estad\u00edstica U1 que se usa con menos frecuencia.<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20978\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur5.png\" alt=\"la estad\u00edstica U\" width=\"146\" height=\"57\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur5.png 146w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur5-18x7.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 146px) 100vw, 146px\" \/><\/p><p>U1 toma valores entre 0 y 1, y los valores m\u00e1s cercanos a 0 representan una mayor precisi\u00f3n del pron\u00f3stico.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-fb1e388 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"fb1e388\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-5d10f18\" data-id=\"5d10f18\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-66853d5 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"66853d5\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h2 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Mesures-relatives\"><\/span>Medidas relativas<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-421456e elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"421456e\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-ba113f5\" data-id=\"ba113f5\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0265fff elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0265fff\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Y aqu\u00ed est\u00e1n las medidas relativas:<\/p><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-20979\" src=\"http:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur6-300x124.png\" alt=\"RE MRAE RELMAE\" width=\"300\" height=\"124\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur6-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur6-18x7.png 18w, https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/erreur6.png 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p><p>Aqu\u00ed la predicci\u00f3n debe compararse con la llamada predicci\u00f3n de referencia B.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>P\u00e1gina de inicio de pron\u00f3stico Wiki Errores de pron\u00f3stico Aqu\u00ed est\u00e1n las principales m\u00e9tricas para medir los errores de pron\u00f3stico: Medici\u00f3n dependiente de la escala: MAE, MDAE,\u2026 <\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":20753,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-20971","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20971","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20971"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20971\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20982,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20971\/revisions\/20982"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/20753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/complex-systems-ai.com\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20971"}],"curies":[{"name":"gracias","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}